2017 LED industry development prospects and challenges

2017-2-8 15:06:44

2016 LED industry from the "winter" in the wake, a great recovery trend. First of all, from the listed companies in 2016 results notice, more than Qi Cheng's business performance and profit in the double growth; In addition, the beginning of last year to the end of the price surge has been maintained in the LED industry ignited. From a series of industry data, the 2016 LED industry is no longer a "devastated", the dawn of the industry to reproduce.

However, not all of the LED business in 2016 have been very moist. In the industry giants scale effect, small and medium enterprises living space is getting smaller and smaller, more and more difficult situation, "closed" and "Paolu" frequency is; In addition, the product profit margins are compressed, the gradual decline in profitability circumstances , International lighting giants have contraction front, in order to "protect", the global LED industry center of gravity to further move closer to China.

Into 2017, LED industry can continue the momentum of development in 2016 to become the focus of attention in the industry. Some analysts said that 2017 LED industry supply and demand will be further improved, more rational development of the industry.

1, LED chip promising, 2017 will be in short supply

2016 years ago, LED chip manufacturers have expanded their business, resulting in significant excess capacity, prices continued to decline rapidly, making the LED industry drastic changes. However, since 2016, with the steady growth in demand, LED industry supply and demand relations gradually improved last year, there is a product-intensive price increases.

Experts said, LED industry after a deep shuffle, the supply side of the reform more fully. It is estimated that by the end of 2017, LED chip production capacity of about 83.28 million effective demand, about 92.35 million. Demand for outdoor full-color display 260 million, an increase of 5%; indoor small spacing demand of 1.02 million, an increase of 50%; mobile phone backlight demand of 1.39 million, the same time, Tablet PC backlighting needs of 440,000, computer and TV backlighting needs of 6.99 million, 1.06 million automotive lighting needs.

The industry believes that, LED chip production capacity is still below demand. Taking into account the steady growth in demand in 2017, LED chips will be in a state of short supply.

2, 2017 China LED packaging capacity continues to strengthen

According to DIGITIMES study found that, in view of LED lighting, large-size LED display and LED automotive lighting a significant growth in demand in 2017, China LED packaging production capacity will continue to grow. As one of the largest LED packaging enterprises in China, the monthly production capacity will increase from 50 billion LED chips in the third quarter of 2016 to 600-700 billion pieces at the end of the year. Month packaging capacity will be further expanded to 15 billion LED chips. Foshan National Star in 2016 will expand the LED packaging capacity of 40%, and will continue to expand in 2017.

3, 2017 LED lighting market size or will reach 33.1 billion US dollars

According to TrendForce "2017 Global Lighting Market Outlook" report shows that 2016 LED lighting market size reached 29.6 billion US dollars, and 2017 LED lighting market will reach 33.1 billion US dollars, LED lighting penetration rate of 52%. According to the analysis, benefit from the regional lighting market development, in 2016 Europe accounted for 23% of LED lighting, followed by North America and China. Looking ahead, the Asia-Pacific lighting market, the fastest growing.

4, 2020 LED display market size will reach 30 billion US dollars

2016-2021 China LED display industry market demand and investment advisory report predicts that the next few years, the global LED display market demand will continue to maintain rapid growth, the average annual growth rate will exceed 20% expected by 2020, the global LED The display market size will reach 30 billion US dollars, China will be the most important manufacturing base. LED display industry market prospects.

5,2017 global high-brightness LED output value reached 13.18 billion US dollars

According to research firm DIGITIMESResearch estimates, in 2017 the global high-brightness LED production rate will be 2.8% annual rate, reaching 13.18 billion US dollars. To use the number of stars, 2017 will reach 303.75 billion, the annual growth rate of 23.9%, of which the highest annual growth rate of usage will remain for lighting applications, up to 39.2%.

The proportion of the proportion of LED distribution, 2017 lighting applications accounted for 66%, Mobile device (mainly for mobile phones) with LED light source and large size LED backlight with a total of 20.8%, display Kanban And automotive LED were 5.6%, 4.7%.

From the above industry forecast data, we can see: 1, 2017 global LED industry growth trend unchanged; 2, the growth momentum slowed down, the industry entered a period of steady development; 3, industry concentration will be further strengthened.

Second, into 2017, LED industry, several major development trends worthy of our attention to the majority of practitioners.

1, industry consolidation will continue

LED industry is still the future integration of the main trends, on the one hand through mergers and acquisitions, bigger and stronger number of enterprises; the other hand will be phasing out a number of non-competitive enterprises, making China's lighting industry more healthy and more competitive .

LED industry from the upper and middle reaches of the enterprise development can clearly see the big Hengda this trend. Epitaxy chip enterprise Sanan, Hua Can has obvious leader; encapsulation enterprise listed company scale expands ceaselessly, small business survival space is restricted, be eliminated is just a matter of time.

2, industrial automation to further enhance the degree

In 2016, many LED companies began to take the automated production line, the scale of the LED lighting business is currently bulb, lamp and other production has been automated.

The future, out of efficiency, quality and cost considerations, and many other factors, is bound to have more and more enterprises to use automated equipment for production. LED lighting production is gradually automated, this is an inevitable trend.

3, market segments are further attention

Recalling 2016, small pitch display, automotive LED, mobile phone LED flash market segments are concerned; bio-agricultural light, light, medical, communications, security, sterilization and other innovative applications will become the alternative phase after the new growth point and long-term growth power.

Into 2017, LED giant economies of scale will be further reflected, small and medium enterprises to further narrow the living space. In this context, more and more LED companies will be moving to high-margin market segments. Large enterprises with the capital market, through the integration of mergers and acquisitions, further gathering advantages of resources, continue to become bigger and stronger. Small and medium enterprises will need to deep plowing market segments, so fine to do in order to seek a way out.

4, cross-border phenomenon will be more frequent

This two-year leader of the big brands continue to strengthen brand building, through cross-border cooperation, for the channel penetration and occupation is also deepening, which makes the increasingly fierce competition, industry consolidation is imperative. Only with the core competitiveness of enterprises to survive and become the lighting market, the winner of the future.

Into 2017, LED industry development is bound to a high degree of brand concentration, the market will focus on the hands of first-line brand manufacturers. At the same time, LED industry competition is an indisputable fact that many LED companies are in the development bottleneck, do not know how to change the status quo. This time through cross-border breakthrough, may be able to open up new profit growth point.

5, the downstream application needs to expand, LED prices or will heat up

With the LED downstream applications continue to expand and the gradual increase in market penetration, with high value-added lighting, small pitch display, automotive LED and other emerging markets will bring incremental space for the industry. Agency is expected, due to expansion of the middle reaches of the packaging plant expansion and downstream applications to expand and other factors to promote the future of LED prices is expected or will heat up.

With the adjustment of foreign LED business strategy last year, shutting down product lines, excess capacity to ease, the local LED companies through overseas mergers and acquisitions, broaden the coverage and technical strength. The organization believes that, after the industry consolidation, production capacity, the LED industry, driven by improved supply and demand, price momentum will continue, the industry is expected to gradually better pattern.

Finally, LED industry, although the development momentum is better, but also have to always beware of from OLED, Micro LED and laser lighting and other challenges, LED companies need to continuously upgrade their strength to deal with the impact from emerging forces.

OLED challenges. 2016, OLED lighting field of sound, seems to have disappeared silence of the potential, but OLED is easier to achieve white, ultra-thin light source and the advantages of any shape light source, while efficient, environmental protection, security and other advantages, is still undeniable fact. In the future, OLED lighting and LED lighting will still complement each other to meet a variety of areas of mixed needs.

At present, the stability of OLED materials and encapsulation technology has to be improved, OLED cost is high, if there is no new technological breakthroughs, whether used in display or lighting, OLED short term will be difficult to popularize. The next 10 years, LCD, LED will remain the mainstream technology. With the progress of OLED technology, is expected to gradually enter the mainstream market.

From small and medium-sized display to large-size display and then lighting, OLED with the production process and product performance improvement, all the way to triumph, and its strong development will threaten the dominant position of LED?

Micro LED challenges. Micro LED technology life, contrast, response time, energy consumption, viewing angle, resolution and other indicators are stronger than the LCD and OLED, has been considered by many manufacturers is the next generation of display technology.

Many giants such as Apple, Sony and other active layout began, and try to participate in the development of Micro LED layout, trying to Micro LED commercialization, ongoing cutting-edge exploration, in order to occupy the next generation of display technology development tide Favorable position.

Challenges of laser lighting. Nakamura repair early in 2013, began in public repeatedly said that the advantages of laser lighting, LED lighting, compared with its more efficient, the future, or replace the current LED lighting, LED lighting. Laser lighting is thousands of times the efficiency of LED, not only can increase the projection distance, improve security, while smaller, more compact structure. In addition to the lighting field, the laser display in the projector, digital cinema, television, stage lighting, large-screen mosaic, automotive and other fields, will have a broader application.

"The father of blue LED", Nobel Prize winner in the repair of physics in the village several times in public that the advantages of laser lighting and optimistic about the future of laser lighting, laser lighting by the attention; but by price, technology and other factors Impact, the current high-volume use of laser lighting has not been fully realized, but the advantages of laser lighting is undoubtedly prominent. Therefore, we have reason to believe that the field of laser lighting in the future set to be able to carry out some new changes, and promote the lighting industry product development.